• THE GRIND


    The U.S. cocoa grind is scheduled to be released Thursday at 4 p.m. EDT. First notice day for May cocoa is Friday. In general Grindings (demand) is a key indicator of cocoa demand, which has been falling in the wake of the global economic slowdown.

    The ECA (European Cocoa Association) reported that Q1 cocoa grind falls 11.1% (315,177 MT – that’s 694,839,214 lbs!)

    Who is the ECA?
    Trade association representing the European cocoa sector and regrouping the major companies involved in the cocoa bean trade and processing, in warehousing and related logistical activities.
    ECA Members represent two-thirds of Europe’s cocoa beans grinding, half of Europe's industrial chocolate production and 40 % of the world production of cocoa liquor, butter and powder.
    Who are the ECA Members?
    Grinding members: ADM Cocoa, a unit of Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM); Barry Callebaut AG (BARN.EB); Delfi Cocoa Europe, a division of Petra Foods Ltd. (P34.SG); ECOM/Dutch Cocoa; and Gerkens Cacao, a unit of Cargill Inc.

    Bean processors: Cadbury Schweppes PLC (CSG), Carletti, Cioccolato Peyrano, Euromar, Ferrero SPA, Fuchs & Hoffmann, Hachez, Herza, Icam, Kessko, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), Lindt (Italy), Ludwig, Majani, Natra, Nederland, Nestle SA (NESN.VX), Schokinag, Schwartauer Werke, Storck, Weinrich and Toms.

    more

  • Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)


    Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) is located on the southern coast of West Africa. The cocoa trade makes up one-third of Cote d'Ivoire’s economy, is the world's largest producer / exporter of cocoa beans, and provides 43 percent of the world’s cocoa beans. With over 600,000 cocoa farms it is the largest source for cocoa in the world. Its capital is Yamoussoukro. It’s slightly larger than New Mexico with a population of just over 20 million. French is the official language and has 60 native dialects with Dioula the most widely spoken. The economy is highly sensitive to fluctuations in international prices for cocoa. Since 2006, oil and gas production have become more important economic activity than cocoa. According to IMF statistics, earnings from oil and refined products were $1.3 billion in 2006, cocoa-related revenues were $1 billion during the same period.
    Background:

    • Independence from France – August 7th 1960

    • In December 1999, a military coup - the first ever in Cote d'Ivoire's history - overthrew the government.

    • Junta leader Robert GUEI rigged elections held in late 2000 and declared himself the winner.

    • October 26, 2000 – Laurent Gbagbo became president

    • Popular protest forced him to step aside and brought Laurent Gbagbo into power.

    • Members of the military launched a failed coup attempt in September 2002. • Rebel forces claimed the northern half of the country.

    • President Gbagbo and rebel forces resume for peace in December 2003 (no resolution)

    • In March 2007 President Gbagbo and former New Force rebel leader Guillaume Soro signed the Ouagadougou Political Agreement.

    • Soro joined GBAGBO's government as Prime Minister and the two agreed to reunite the country

    • French and UN troops remain in Cote d'Ivoire to help the parties implement their commitments and to support the peace process.

    more

  • Cocoa Market News March 27, 09’

    *** Click on picture for better view

    A Russian advertising agency has used an image resembling U.S. President Barack Obama to promote a new vanilla-and-chocolate ice cream. The brand is named "Duet." The poster features a c-g caricature figure resembling Obama standing in front of the U.S. Congress. Tag line: "It's on everyone's lips -- the Dark is in the White!" Yevgeny Primachenko, deputy creative director of Voskhod advertisement agency, told Reuters by phone from Yekaterinburg “This is just a vanilla ice cream with a chocolate filling," Primachenko said. "We decided: why not use such a great news peg as the election of the first black U.S. president to the White House, while showing no political preferences at the same time?" There is a Russian human rights activist stating the advertisement as "a vulgar exploitation of some political symbols in pursuit of commercial interests."


    In Southwestern Nigeria, the price of graded cocoa has risen to $2,499 per MT. Graded cocoa (inspected and certified for export) had fallen in value the past three weeks to the smaller mid-crop cocoa beans from the main crop. This area accounts for 70% of Nigeria's annual cocoa output of 242,000 MT.

    Ivory Coast cocoa prices rose last week ahead of next week's opening of the April-September mid crop harvest. The sunny days last week soothed farmers' fears about disease wrecking the mid crop. There are reports of a favorable weather pattern for the developing mid crop. This pattern will also favor the flowering period for the main crop. This pattern needs to continue into the next month. The price at the port (Abidjan) climbed last week to between 680 and 700 CFA francs ($3.17) per lb, compared with between 600 and 650 CFA the week before. Mid-crop buying has already began.

    Last week pod counters predicted the mid crop would be smaller than last year's but some believe the 2008/09 harvest could reach 350,000 MT (771,610,000 lbs), up from 315,000 last year. In Daloa (25% of cocoa in Ivory Coast) the buyers are wanting to fill warehouses before the beginning of mid-crop.

    Ecuador: To the bean buyers. This a list of the floor prices (FOB, 100lb bags, March 26th to April 1st.). this is according to The Department of Industries.
    Beans:
    CCN51 $109.25
    ASE $113.79
    ASS $121.18
    ASSS $124.60
    ASSPS $130.86
    Butter $250.96
    Residual Butter $188.22
    Cocoa Liquor $146.19
    Cake $23.74
    Residual Cake $2.37
    Powder $27.89


    Cameroon cocoa and coffee farmers have been complaining about the lack of bank loans to increase and improve their output. This is very similar to complaints in Peru.
    Ghana have announced plans to transform the country’s shea nut production to echo the success of its cocoa industry. Shea nuts are used to make substitutes for cocoa butter in the chocolate and confectionery industry and are a principal raw material of cocoa butter equivalents (CBE). AarhusKarlshamn (AAK) claims to be one of the world’s leading producers of high value-added, speciality vegetable fats and it recently invested in strengthening its shea butter supply chain in West Africa to help secure supply of the core CBE raw material.

    Cadbury will begin stage one of the $51 million redevelopment of the Cadbury Confectionery Ltd factory in Dunedin. This is planned to be the ‘centre of excellence' for the production of all chocolate assortments for the New Zealand and Australian markets. The factory employed 700 workers, rising to 800 at the height of production season.

    more

  • Grenada Chocolate Company.

    Slow Cocoa News day today. May 09' through Dec 10' averaged +6.

    Enjoy this video of the Grenada Chocolate Company. Please visit thier website at http://www.grenadachocolate.com/ and look at the use of solar power. A list of where you can pick up the chocolate is on the website...

    Thanks Mott for the permission to display the video...

    more

  • Cocoa Market News March 25th


    Venezuela celebrated the 155Th anniversary of the abolition of slavery. There was an artisanal chocolate exposition in Caracas on Tuesday. Venezuelan President Jose Gregorio Monagas
    outlawed slavery on March 24, 1854, that, at the time, affected more than 40,000 people of African origin.

    Europe has stock of unsold cocoa piling up. Consumers are turning to cheaper brands with low cocoa content. An article that caught my eye this morning was Reuters article Consumers turn to cheap supermarket brand chocolate by Michael Hogan who quoted Andreas Christiansen, the chairman of Germany's cocoa trade association who stated "Some producers are loosing almost 100% of their exports to Central/Eastern Europe and Russia after their currencies devalued drastically against the euro and dollar," he said. "We are told some Polish and Hungarian chocolate producers are suffering sales falls of 50 percent." Unsold European stock of cocoa products had risen sharply. "There are large volumes of unsold cocoa products in Europe," he said. "The warehouses are full, we estimate that we have unsold inventories of cocoa products, that is mainly cocoa butter and cocoa mass, of about 70,000 tonnes in Europe. Unsold inventories held as a buffer are normally around 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes." - Note- 70,000 MT = 154,322,000 lbs.

    Butter ratios in December were 2.66 - It's now ranging just above 2.10. Just to break it down // One container (40,000lbs) @ a Cocoa Market of 2600 = $125,483.08 @ 2.66 ratio minus $99,065.59 @ 2.10 ratio equals a savings of $26,417.49!! Chances of the ratio getting any lower is rare. Cheaper brands mean less butter and more powder. More Powder means more butter in stock. Its no surprise that sales of more expensive chocolates are falling because of the economic slowdown.

    Nestle, the world's biggest food group, says they will continue to grow in 2009, even with the poor economic conditions. Last month they predicted a growth of 5% in Organic Sales.

    The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) Panel on contaminants in the food chain has set a reduced tolerable weekly intake (TWI) for cadmium of 2.5 micrograms per kilogram of body weight (μg/kg bw), based on an analysis of new data. High levels can be found in chocolate but are not a major contributor in foods such as cereals and cereal products, vegetables, nuts and pulses, starchy roots and potatoes, as well as meat and meat products.

    ICE Futures U.S. is owned by Intercontinental Exchange Inc. It trades futures and options contracts in raw sugar, arabica coffee, cocoa, frozen concentrated orange juice and cotton, among others. They warned market players late yesterday about attempts to illegally influence the exchange settlement prices of futures or options contracts by using "improper" trading practices.
    Former Solomon Islands (East of Papua New Guinea) Central Bank governor Rick Hou said "The country must work with donors to develop new industries if it is to stave off the economic recession and beat annual growth forecasts that are no higher than 1.5 per cent." He identified one of the potential sources of growth could be cocoa.

    more

  • Cocoa Market News March 24, 09'

    The leader of the, Anaky Kobenan. said on state television what had happened in Madagascar should serve as an example for President Laurent Gbagboa in a real transition. Tension builds as the delay of elections are prolonged. Cote d'Ivoire last postponed the vote on Nov. 30 largely due to the slow moving of voter identification.

    A fourth agreement to form a united army of national defense was signed last December by both President Gbagbo and Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, the leader of the former rebel New Forces (FN). They had agreed to speed up the pre-election census. The two men signed their first deal in March 2007, under which Soro was name prime minister.

    Note: Ivory Coast is the a leading cocoa and diamond exporter in West Africa, was split into the government-controlled south and the FN- held north after a botched coup attempt by the former rebel in 2002. The presidential polls have never taken place since the signing of peace accords in 2003.

    Nigeria (4th biggest cocoa grower - 300,000 MT per yr) arrivals main export route of Lagos climbed to 130,000 MT between Oct. 1 2008 and Feb. 28 2009, 14 percent higher than the 113,500 MT delivered in Lagos in the same period of the 2007/08 season. 15,000 MT of cocoa beans arrived in Lagos in February

    Morowali, Indonesia is going through major flood issues. Besides cocoa the floodwaters also inundated 526 hectares of rice paddies, 161 hectares of fish farms and 163 hectares of farmland. Some 4,682 people from 1,313 families were evacuated.

    Candy store owners and managers are noticing a big increase in sales. As unemployment has risen Americans, particularly adults, have been consuming growing volumes of candy. Mostly the cheaper candies but the higher quality candies as well.

    For all you buyers out there:
    X-dock U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hartteras, sellers option, in dollars per metric ton. May quotes. Sources: Cocoa Merchants Assn. of America.
    Cocoa Beans Today Previous
    Main Ghana grade 1 3,146 3,118
    Main crop Ivory Coast, grade 1 2,943 2,938
    Nigerian Main Crop grade one 2,925 2,918
    Superior seasons Arriba (Ecuador) 2,868 2,835
    Sanchez faq (Dominican Republic) 2,876 2,860
    Malaysia 110 2,608 2,587
    Sulawesi faq 2,683 2,668
    Cocoa Liquor
    Ecuador 3,717 3,705
    Pure pressed cocoa butter
    Africian type butter 6,396 6,463
    Natural 10-12 pct nat cake 1,193 1,318

    more

  • Cocoa Market March 23, 2009





    • Ivory Coast arrested, but later released, Anaky, (leader of the Movement of Future Forces (MFA)) an opposition politician who had called on Ivorians to force president Gbagbo (The Ivorian Popular Front) from power.

    • Elections in the West African country have been repeatedly delayed. Former rebels in the north have not disarmed, registration of the estimated 7 million people eligible to vote is far from complete. Analysts say , the Ivorian Popular Front, is reluctant to hold a poll it has no guarantee of winning.

    • There is a disturbing short video called , "Hakani," that has been watched more than 350,000 times on the YouTube. It shows A video Amazon Indians burying children alive. It's now said to be a FAKE. The dirt covering the children's faces is actually chocolate cake. The video was made by the son of the founder of an American missionary organization called Youth with a Mission.

    • Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast reached an estimate of 857,000 MT March 22 (1,041,772 MT in 2008 same period)

    • Exporters are already focusing on April-September mid-crop as of the main crop (only one week left) draws to a disappointing end.

    • Last week pod counters said they were expecting the April-September harvest to be under 300,000 MT less than last year's volume.

    • China Feb Cocoa Bean Imports down 98% to 100 MT.

    • Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" recommends Hershey. During the "Mad Money Lightning Round" Friday evening he stated "I'd rather do Coca-Cola . I also like Hershey Foods and want to buy some Hershey right here."

    • The weakness of the USD is pushing the cocoa futures higher. The recent drop in cocoa butter ratios has triggered cocoa powder price increase

    • Euro was very volatile in March and moved between 1.24 up to 1.37.
    • Kellogg's has D-Listed AIB 3rd Party Certifier due to the peanut butter issues. Wal Mart is promoting the changes.

      SUGAR REPORTS

    • China '08-09 Sugar Output Likely Down 13% At 12.95MT. Feb Sugar Imports Up Sharply On Year At 157,161 Tons

    • India 2009-10 Sugar Output Likely 20MT Vs 15.5MT last year

    • A rebound in the U.S. dollar pushed ICE world sugar futures marginally lower

    • China Feb Sugar Imports Up Sharply On Year At 157,161 Tons

    more

  • Cocoa Market News March 20, 2009

    ** Click on chart to preview **

    Similar to Debbie Downer (SNL) here’s my thoughts on the current Cocoa Market.
    The price corrections in cocoa could be short-lived. I refer you back to my blog back on March 13th titled “5 Indicators that Cocoa could go to the BULLS “as some of the factors behind the market’s rally.
    · Cocoa market fell in February on fears that a recession decrease chocolate demand.
    · A good portion of yesterday’s gains were due to the steep fall in the dollar
    · Likely seeing price support from arbitrage
    · Index funds may be lured back to the cocoa market as inflation concerns escalate
    · Let’s not forget about the tight supply view and concerns over the spread of black pod disease damaging the mid-crop
    · There is a lower mid-crop output forecast by Ivory Coast pod counters.
    · Nigerian farmers are the latest West African producers raising warning flags over the rising odds of a fungal attack.

    · Lotte Holdings Co. is in talks to buy German chocolate company Stollwerck (owned by Barry Callebaut). They’re aiming to expand into Europe.
    · Easter is the second-biggest holiday of the year, beaten out only by Halloween, and the NCA says some 88% of adults give kids Easter baskets with candy. Peeps, is the best-selling non-chocolate Easter candy but, there is a new Chocolate Mousse Flavored Bunnies. Consumers are planning to cut back this Easter. Here are the averages:
    o Celebrating Spend – This year: $116.59 Last year: $135.03 last year
    o Easter Dinner – This year: $37.67 Last year: $41.09
    o Easter Flowers - This year: $7.55 Last Year: $9.11
    o Easter Candy - This year: $16.55 Last year: $18.12
    o Easter Gifts – This year: $17.30 Last year: $21.42
    o Easter Clothes - This year: $19.44 Last year $23.82

    Change To Trading Hours For ICE Agricultural
    Contracts - Effective March 30, 2009
    Effective with the start of trading on Sunday, March 29 for trade date Monday, March 30, 2009, the Exchange is revising electronic trading hours for all agricultural futures and option contracts.
    With the changes, electronic trading hours for these products will be as follows (all times shown in NY times and changes from current hours are shown in bold):
    ETS Hours OPEN CLOSE
    Sugar No. 11 Futures and Options 3:30 AM 2:00 PM
    Coffee "C" Futures and Options 3:30 AM 2:00 PM
    Cocoa Futures and Options 4:00 AM 2:00 PM
    Cotton No. 2 Futures and Options 9:00 PM 2:30 PM
    FCOJ Futures and Options 8:00 AM 2:00 PM
    Sugar No. 14 and 16 Futures     9:00 AM 2:00 PM

    more

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    THE GRIND


    The U.S. cocoa grind is scheduled to be released Thursday at 4 p.m. EDT. First notice day for May cocoa is Friday. In general Grindings (demand) is a key indicator of cocoa demand, which has been falling in the wake of the global economic slowdown.

    The ECA (European Cocoa Association) reported that Q1 cocoa grind falls 11.1% (315,177 MT – that’s 694,839,214 lbs!)

    Who is the ECA?
    Trade association representing the European cocoa sector and regrouping the major companies involved in the cocoa bean trade and processing, in warehousing and related logistical activities.
    ECA Members represent two-thirds of Europe’s cocoa beans grinding, half of Europe's industrial chocolate production and 40 % of the world production of cocoa liquor, butter and powder.
    Who are the ECA Members?
    Grinding members: ADM Cocoa, a unit of Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM); Barry Callebaut AG (BARN.EB); Delfi Cocoa Europe, a division of Petra Foods Ltd. (P34.SG); ECOM/Dutch Cocoa; and Gerkens Cacao, a unit of Cargill Inc.

    Bean processors: Cadbury Schweppes PLC (CSG), Carletti, Cioccolato Peyrano, Euromar, Ferrero SPA, Fuchs & Hoffmann, Hachez, Herza, Icam, Kessko, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), Lindt (Italy), Ludwig, Majani, Natra, Nederland, Nestle SA (NESN.VX), Schokinag, Schwartauer Werke, Storck, Weinrich and Toms.

    Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)


    Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) is located on the southern coast of West Africa. The cocoa trade makes up one-third of Cote d'Ivoire’s economy, is the world's largest producer / exporter of cocoa beans, and provides 43 percent of the world’s cocoa beans. With over 600,000 cocoa farms it is the largest source for cocoa in the world. Its capital is Yamoussoukro. It’s slightly larger than New Mexico with a population of just over 20 million. French is the official language and has 60 native dialects with Dioula the most widely spoken. The economy is highly sensitive to fluctuations in international prices for cocoa. Since 2006, oil and gas production have become more important economic activity than cocoa. According to IMF statistics, earnings from oil and refined products were $1.3 billion in 2006, cocoa-related revenues were $1 billion during the same period.
    Background:

    • Independence from France – August 7th 1960

    • In December 1999, a military coup - the first ever in Cote d'Ivoire's history - overthrew the government.

    • Junta leader Robert GUEI rigged elections held in late 2000 and declared himself the winner.

    • October 26, 2000 – Laurent Gbagbo became president

    • Popular protest forced him to step aside and brought Laurent Gbagbo into power.

    • Members of the military launched a failed coup attempt in September 2002. • Rebel forces claimed the northern half of the country.

    • President Gbagbo and rebel forces resume for peace in December 2003 (no resolution)

    • In March 2007 President Gbagbo and former New Force rebel leader Guillaume Soro signed the Ouagadougou Political Agreement.

    • Soro joined GBAGBO's government as Prime Minister and the two agreed to reunite the country

    • French and UN troops remain in Cote d'Ivoire to help the parties implement their commitments and to support the peace process.

    Cocoa Market News March 27, 09’

    *** Click on picture for better view

    A Russian advertising agency has used an image resembling U.S. President Barack Obama to promote a new vanilla-and-chocolate ice cream. The brand is named "Duet." The poster features a c-g caricature figure resembling Obama standing in front of the U.S. Congress. Tag line: "It's on everyone's lips -- the Dark is in the White!" Yevgeny Primachenko, deputy creative director of Voskhod advertisement agency, told Reuters by phone from Yekaterinburg “This is just a vanilla ice cream with a chocolate filling," Primachenko said. "We decided: why not use such a great news peg as the election of the first black U.S. president to the White House, while showing no political preferences at the same time?" There is a Russian human rights activist stating the advertisement as "a vulgar exploitation of some political symbols in pursuit of commercial interests."


    In Southwestern Nigeria, the price of graded cocoa has risen to $2,499 per MT. Graded cocoa (inspected and certified for export) had fallen in value the past three weeks to the smaller mid-crop cocoa beans from the main crop. This area accounts for 70% of Nigeria's annual cocoa output of 242,000 MT.

    Ivory Coast cocoa prices rose last week ahead of next week's opening of the April-September mid crop harvest. The sunny days last week soothed farmers' fears about disease wrecking the mid crop. There are reports of a favorable weather pattern for the developing mid crop. This pattern will also favor the flowering period for the main crop. This pattern needs to continue into the next month. The price at the port (Abidjan) climbed last week to between 680 and 700 CFA francs ($3.17) per lb, compared with between 600 and 650 CFA the week before. Mid-crop buying has already began.

    Last week pod counters predicted the mid crop would be smaller than last year's but some believe the 2008/09 harvest could reach 350,000 MT (771,610,000 lbs), up from 315,000 last year. In Daloa (25% of cocoa in Ivory Coast) the buyers are wanting to fill warehouses before the beginning of mid-crop.

    Ecuador: To the bean buyers. This a list of the floor prices (FOB, 100lb bags, March 26th to April 1st.). this is according to The Department of Industries.
    Beans:
    CCN51 $109.25
    ASE $113.79
    ASS $121.18
    ASSS $124.60
    ASSPS $130.86
    Butter $250.96
    Residual Butter $188.22
    Cocoa Liquor $146.19
    Cake $23.74
    Residual Cake $2.37
    Powder $27.89


    Cameroon cocoa and coffee farmers have been complaining about the lack of bank loans to increase and improve their output. This is very similar to complaints in Peru.
    Ghana have announced plans to transform the country’s shea nut production to echo the success of its cocoa industry. Shea nuts are used to make substitutes for cocoa butter in the chocolate and confectionery industry and are a principal raw material of cocoa butter equivalents (CBE). AarhusKarlshamn (AAK) claims to be one of the world’s leading producers of high value-added, speciality vegetable fats and it recently invested in strengthening its shea butter supply chain in West Africa to help secure supply of the core CBE raw material.

    Cadbury will begin stage one of the $51 million redevelopment of the Cadbury Confectionery Ltd factory in Dunedin. This is planned to be the ‘centre of excellence' for the production of all chocolate assortments for the New Zealand and Australian markets. The factory employed 700 workers, rising to 800 at the height of production season.

    Grenada Chocolate Company.

    Slow Cocoa News day today. May 09' through Dec 10' averaged +6.

    Enjoy this video of the Grenada Chocolate Company. Please visit thier website at http://www.grenadachocolate.com/ and look at the use of solar power. A list of where you can pick up the chocolate is on the website...

    Thanks Mott for the permission to display the video...

    Cocoa Market News March 25th


    Venezuela celebrated the 155Th anniversary of the abolition of slavery. There was an artisanal chocolate exposition in Caracas on Tuesday. Venezuelan President Jose Gregorio Monagas
    outlawed slavery on March 24, 1854, that, at the time, affected more than 40,000 people of African origin.

    Europe has stock of unsold cocoa piling up. Consumers are turning to cheaper brands with low cocoa content. An article that caught my eye this morning was Reuters article Consumers turn to cheap supermarket brand chocolate by Michael Hogan who quoted Andreas Christiansen, the chairman of Germany's cocoa trade association who stated "Some producers are loosing almost 100% of their exports to Central/Eastern Europe and Russia after their currencies devalued drastically against the euro and dollar," he said. "We are told some Polish and Hungarian chocolate producers are suffering sales falls of 50 percent." Unsold European stock of cocoa products had risen sharply. "There are large volumes of unsold cocoa products in Europe," he said. "The warehouses are full, we estimate that we have unsold inventories of cocoa products, that is mainly cocoa butter and cocoa mass, of about 70,000 tonnes in Europe. Unsold inventories held as a buffer are normally around 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes." - Note- 70,000 MT = 154,322,000 lbs.

    Butter ratios in December were 2.66 - It's now ranging just above 2.10. Just to break it down // One container (40,000lbs) @ a Cocoa Market of 2600 = $125,483.08 @ 2.66 ratio minus $99,065.59 @ 2.10 ratio equals a savings of $26,417.49!! Chances of the ratio getting any lower is rare. Cheaper brands mean less butter and more powder. More Powder means more butter in stock. Its no surprise that sales of more expensive chocolates are falling because of the economic slowdown.

    Nestle, the world's biggest food group, says they will continue to grow in 2009, even with the poor economic conditions. Last month they predicted a growth of 5% in Organic Sales.

    The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) Panel on contaminants in the food chain has set a reduced tolerable weekly intake (TWI) for cadmium of 2.5 micrograms per kilogram of body weight (μg/kg bw), based on an analysis of new data. High levels can be found in chocolate but are not a major contributor in foods such as cereals and cereal products, vegetables, nuts and pulses, starchy roots and potatoes, as well as meat and meat products.

    ICE Futures U.S. is owned by Intercontinental Exchange Inc. It trades futures and options contracts in raw sugar, arabica coffee, cocoa, frozen concentrated orange juice and cotton, among others. They warned market players late yesterday about attempts to illegally influence the exchange settlement prices of futures or options contracts by using "improper" trading practices.
    Former Solomon Islands (East of Papua New Guinea) Central Bank governor Rick Hou said "The country must work with donors to develop new industries if it is to stave off the economic recession and beat annual growth forecasts that are no higher than 1.5 per cent." He identified one of the potential sources of growth could be cocoa.

    Cocoa Market News March 24, 09'

    The leader of the, Anaky Kobenan. said on state television what had happened in Madagascar should serve as an example for President Laurent Gbagboa in a real transition. Tension builds as the delay of elections are prolonged. Cote d'Ivoire last postponed the vote on Nov. 30 largely due to the slow moving of voter identification.

    A fourth agreement to form a united army of national defense was signed last December by both President Gbagbo and Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, the leader of the former rebel New Forces (FN). They had agreed to speed up the pre-election census. The two men signed their first deal in March 2007, under which Soro was name prime minister.

    Note: Ivory Coast is the a leading cocoa and diamond exporter in West Africa, was split into the government-controlled south and the FN- held north after a botched coup attempt by the former rebel in 2002. The presidential polls have never taken place since the signing of peace accords in 2003.

    Nigeria (4th biggest cocoa grower - 300,000 MT per yr) arrivals main export route of Lagos climbed to 130,000 MT between Oct. 1 2008 and Feb. 28 2009, 14 percent higher than the 113,500 MT delivered in Lagos in the same period of the 2007/08 season. 15,000 MT of cocoa beans arrived in Lagos in February

    Morowali, Indonesia is going through major flood issues. Besides cocoa the floodwaters also inundated 526 hectares of rice paddies, 161 hectares of fish farms and 163 hectares of farmland. Some 4,682 people from 1,313 families were evacuated.

    Candy store owners and managers are noticing a big increase in sales. As unemployment has risen Americans, particularly adults, have been consuming growing volumes of candy. Mostly the cheaper candies but the higher quality candies as well.

    For all you buyers out there:
    X-dock U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hartteras, sellers option, in dollars per metric ton. May quotes. Sources: Cocoa Merchants Assn. of America.
    Cocoa Beans Today Previous
    Main Ghana grade 1 3,146 3,118
    Main crop Ivory Coast, grade 1 2,943 2,938
    Nigerian Main Crop grade one 2,925 2,918
    Superior seasons Arriba (Ecuador) 2,868 2,835
    Sanchez faq (Dominican Republic) 2,876 2,860
    Malaysia 110 2,608 2,587
    Sulawesi faq 2,683 2,668
    Cocoa Liquor
    Ecuador 3,717 3,705
    Pure pressed cocoa butter
    Africian type butter 6,396 6,463
    Natural 10-12 pct nat cake 1,193 1,318

    Cocoa Market March 23, 2009





    • Ivory Coast arrested, but later released, Anaky, (leader of the Movement of Future Forces (MFA)) an opposition politician who had called on Ivorians to force president Gbagbo (The Ivorian Popular Front) from power.

    • Elections in the West African country have been repeatedly delayed. Former rebels in the north have not disarmed, registration of the estimated 7 million people eligible to vote is far from complete. Analysts say , the Ivorian Popular Front, is reluctant to hold a poll it has no guarantee of winning.

    • There is a disturbing short video called , "Hakani," that has been watched more than 350,000 times on the YouTube. It shows A video Amazon Indians burying children alive. It's now said to be a FAKE. The dirt covering the children's faces is actually chocolate cake. The video was made by the son of the founder of an American missionary organization called Youth with a Mission.

    • Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast reached an estimate of 857,000 MT March 22 (1,041,772 MT in 2008 same period)

    • Exporters are already focusing on April-September mid-crop as of the main crop (only one week left) draws to a disappointing end.

    • Last week pod counters said they were expecting the April-September harvest to be under 300,000 MT less than last year's volume.

    • China Feb Cocoa Bean Imports down 98% to 100 MT.

    • Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" recommends Hershey. During the "Mad Money Lightning Round" Friday evening he stated "I'd rather do Coca-Cola . I also like Hershey Foods and want to buy some Hershey right here."

    • The weakness of the USD is pushing the cocoa futures higher. The recent drop in cocoa butter ratios has triggered cocoa powder price increase

    • Euro was very volatile in March and moved between 1.24 up to 1.37.
    • Kellogg's has D-Listed AIB 3rd Party Certifier due to the peanut butter issues. Wal Mart is promoting the changes.

      SUGAR REPORTS

    • China '08-09 Sugar Output Likely Down 13% At 12.95MT. Feb Sugar Imports Up Sharply On Year At 157,161 Tons

    • India 2009-10 Sugar Output Likely 20MT Vs 15.5MT last year

    • A rebound in the U.S. dollar pushed ICE world sugar futures marginally lower

    • China Feb Sugar Imports Up Sharply On Year At 157,161 Tons

    Cocoa Market News March 20, 2009

    ** Click on chart to preview **

    Similar to Debbie Downer (SNL) here’s my thoughts on the current Cocoa Market.
    The price corrections in cocoa could be short-lived. I refer you back to my blog back on March 13th titled “5 Indicators that Cocoa could go to the BULLS “as some of the factors behind the market’s rally.
    · Cocoa market fell in February on fears that a recession decrease chocolate demand.
    · A good portion of yesterday’s gains were due to the steep fall in the dollar
    · Likely seeing price support from arbitrage
    · Index funds may be lured back to the cocoa market as inflation concerns escalate
    · Let’s not forget about the tight supply view and concerns over the spread of black pod disease damaging the mid-crop
    · There is a lower mid-crop output forecast by Ivory Coast pod counters.
    · Nigerian farmers are the latest West African producers raising warning flags over the rising odds of a fungal attack.

    · Lotte Holdings Co. is in talks to buy German chocolate company Stollwerck (owned by Barry Callebaut). They’re aiming to expand into Europe.
    · Easter is the second-biggest holiday of the year, beaten out only by Halloween, and the NCA says some 88% of adults give kids Easter baskets with candy. Peeps, is the best-selling non-chocolate Easter candy but, there is a new Chocolate Mousse Flavored Bunnies. Consumers are planning to cut back this Easter. Here are the averages:
    o Celebrating Spend – This year: $116.59 Last year: $135.03 last year
    o Easter Dinner – This year: $37.67 Last year: $41.09
    o Easter Flowers - This year: $7.55 Last Year: $9.11
    o Easter Candy - This year: $16.55 Last year: $18.12
    o Easter Gifts – This year: $17.30 Last year: $21.42
    o Easter Clothes - This year: $19.44 Last year $23.82

    Change To Trading Hours For ICE Agricultural
    Contracts - Effective March 30, 2009
    Effective with the start of trading on Sunday, March 29 for trade date Monday, March 30, 2009, the Exchange is revising electronic trading hours for all agricultural futures and option contracts.
    With the changes, electronic trading hours for these products will be as follows (all times shown in NY times and changes from current hours are shown in bold):
    ETS Hours OPEN CLOSE
    Sugar No. 11 Futures and Options 3:30 AM 2:00 PM
    Coffee "C" Futures and Options 3:30 AM 2:00 PM
    Cocoa Futures and Options 4:00 AM 2:00 PM
    Cotton No. 2 Futures and Options 9:00 PM 2:30 PM
    FCOJ Futures and Options 8:00 AM 2:00 PM
    Sugar No. 14 and 16 Futures     9:00 AM 2:00 PM

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